Which Jobs Will AI Replace, and Which Will Pay More?

By 2030, artificial intelligence and other new technologies will create around 170 million jobs and eliminate 92 million. That is the forecast from the World Economic Forum, based on a survey of more than 1,000 of the world’s largest employers.

On balance, the global labor market will actually grow by about 78 million jobs. But that is an average, and behind it are real people: some professions are shrinking, others are gaining value, and roughly 39% of today’s skills will need updating.

In this article, we use data from leading research to look at which jobs AI is affecting most, who is feeling it first, and what you can do to end up on the winning side.

How AI is putting pressure on employment: what the numbers say

AI affects between a quarter and a half of all jobs worldwide, and it hits wealthy countries hardest. Estimates from three of the largest international organizations agree on the main point:

Source	What was measured	Key figure
World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs 2025	Jobs created and lost by 2030	+170 million and −92 million, net +78 million
International Monetary Fund, 2024	Share of employment exposed to AI	40% globally, 60% in advanced economies
International Labour Organization, May 2025	Share of jobs exposed to generative AI	One in four globally, 34% in high-income countries

These figures need careful reading. “Exposed to AI” does not mean “will disappear.” It means AI can already perform some of the tasks in that job.

According to the IMF, about half of the exposed jobs in advanced economies are likely to benefit from AI, as people become more productive. The other half risk slower hiring and pressure on wages.

The ILO reaches a similar conclusion: the most likely outcome is not that people get replaced, but that their jobs get transformed. Only 3.3% of global employment falls into the highest-risk group.

Which jobs AI is hitting hardest

The fastest-shrinking jobs are office and routine roles, not manual ones. AI is at its best with text, data and repetitive processes, so the pressure lands on the office, not the factory floor.

Sector	Jobs declining fastest	Why AI is putting pressure on them
Administration	Administrative assistants, executive secretaries, clerks, legal secretaries	Documents, correspondence and scheduling are the easiest to automate
Retail and services	Cashiers, ticket clerks	Self-service and online payments
Finance and accounting	Accountants, auditors, bookkeeping clerks	Processing raw data and reconciliations
Creative and print	Printing workers, graphic designers	Generative AI produces images and layouts

Source: WEF, Future of Jobs 2025, “Jobs outlook” chapter. The ILO confirms that clerical work has the highest exposure to AI, and that exposure is rising in highly digitized technical roles.

There is also a less obvious imbalance. The most vulnerable group includes 4.7% of employed women, compared with 2.4% of employed men. The reason is that women are more often employed in office and administrative roles.

Why young workers are hit first

AI is hitting the first rung of the career ladder harder than any single profession. Employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in the occupations most exposed to AI is 19% below where it would have been without AI.

These findings come from the Stanford University study “Canaries in the Coal Mine?” by Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen. The researchers analyzed ADP payroll data covering millions of US workers. The first version, published in 2025, put the gap at 13%. The August 2026 update, with data through June 2026, shows it has widened to 19%.

What the study found:

No mass layoffs. Young people are not being fired; they are simply being hired less often. The door into the profession is not closing, but it is getting narrower.
Experienced workers are barely affected. More experienced employees in the same occupations show no comparable gap.
How a company uses AI is what matters. Where AI replaces human tasks, employment falls. Where AI supports people, employment holds steady or grows.

The reason is simple. AI takes over the routine tasks that newcomers used to learn on. Experience, an understanding of context and judgment are something it cannot yet replace. The authors themselves describe these as early warning signs rather than proof of cause and effect.

Which jobs will pay more

Jobs that require AI skills already pay an average of 56% more than the same jobs without them. A year earlier, that premium was 25%. These figures come from the PwC 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer, based on an analysis of close to a billion job ads across six continents.

The same report shows that wages are rising twice as fast in the industries most exposed to AI. Productivity growth there has nearly quadrupled, from 7% in 2018–2022 to 27% in 2018–2024. And the number of jobs grew in almost every AI-exposed occupation, even in highly automatable ones.

According to the WEF, growth through 2030 is moving in two different directions:

Direction	Jobs	What it means
Fastest-growing (by percentage)	Big data specialists, fintech engineers, AI and machine learning specialists, software developers, cybersecurity specialists	Talent shortages and rising pay
Most new jobs (by number)	Farmworkers (around 35 million new jobs), delivery drivers, construction workers, shop salespeople, food processing workers	AI cannot replace manual work
Steady demand	Nurses, social workers, counselors, teachers	Work built on people and trust

The bottom line: what gains value is not a particular profession, but the combination of a profession and the ability to work with AI. An accountant who uses AI tools is worth more than one who does not.

How to adapt: five practical steps

The winners are those who use AI as an assistant rather than compete with it. According to the WEF, around 39% of skills will change by 2030, and PwC reports that skill requirements in AI-exposed occupations are changing 66% faster.

Master the AI tools of your own profession. Not “AI in general,” but specific tools for your specific tasks. This combination is exactly what employers pay a premium for.
Strengthen what AI cannot replace. Judgment, experience, negotiation, and accountability for results. The Stanford study shows that AI is barely displacing experienced professionals.
Build the skills that are growing fastest. According to the WEF, these are AI and big data, cybersecurity and technological literacy, along with creative thinking, flexibility and analytical thinking.
Keep learning, not just once. A degree no longer settles the question for an entire career. Short courses and hands-on practice with real tasks work faster.
Look toward growing fields. If your role is mostly routine, plan your move in advance: into technology, care and education, or roles where AI supports people rather than replaces them.

One extra piece of advice for those just starting out: gain practical experience as early as possible. Internships, projects and a portfolio make up for the routine tasks that AI is now taking over.

Frequently asked questions

Which jobs will AI replace?

The fastest-declining jobs are cashiers, administrative assistants and secretaries, printing workers, accountants and auditors. The main pressure falls on office and routine tasks.

How many jobs will AI eliminate?

The World Economic Forum forecasts that by 2030 technology will eliminate 92 million jobs and create 170 million. The net result is positive: around 78 million more jobs.

Which jobs will AI not replace?

Jobs built on physical work and on working with people: farmworkers, construction workers, delivery drivers, nurses, social workers and teachers. According to the WEF, these are where the most new jobs will appear.

Why is AI hitting young workers harder?

AI performs the routine tasks that newcomers used to learn on. According to Stanford, employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in these occupations is 19% below expected. They are not being laid off; they are being hired less often.

How much more do AI skills pay?

According to PwC, an average of 56% more for the same job. A year earlier, the premium was 25%.

Conclusion: AI is changing what work is, not how much of it there is

There will be more work in the world, but it will look different. Office routine is moving to AI, and human value is shifting toward experience, judgment and the ability to work with new tools.

The people at risk are not those whose jobs AI touches, but those who do not change along with their jobs. The reverse is also true: whoever masters AI in their field before others gains an edge in both hiring and pay.

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What do you think: will AI affect your profession in the next five years? And if you found this article useful, share it with someone who needs it right now.